Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges With Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The frequently changing summit is another twist in the president's efforts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country recently to celebrate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a history of supporting the Israeli state since his first term, including his decision to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an deal.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the country - then to back off in the wake of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his ability to sit down and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
So, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, admitting that ending the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.